It's a tough call between this and concept one, I think this one will be easier to associate with xmms2. I look at the first concept and think, ohh monkeys! But then, I might have a problem. The bottom one of these just seems perfect: the white outline, the shadows, the glare, the gradients. And if the community is serious about trying to distance itself from the xmms1, they are better off not using the name in the logo. All it will need is transparency for the shadows and a well blended edge on the outline.